It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
