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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."